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The Lead - Quality Dynamics

01.15.2025

The Lead - Quality Dynamics

Tags: Equity, Economic Updates

Performance by S&P Stock Quality Rating

The fourth quarter of 2024 started with a bang but ended in a whimper for the market, in our view. One of the most interesting dynamics to us was the relative underperformance of value stocks compared to the overall market and the nature of the performance. For context, the Russell 1000® Value Index was down -2.0% on a total return basis while the S&P 500® Index was up +2.4%.

We believe the other interesting component was the nature of what stocks worked in both indices. The table above shows the performance in 4Q24 and 2024 for stocks based on S&P quality measures that include return on equity (ROE) and balance sheet leverage, with higher-quality stocks receiving higher letter grades. The table shows in the bottom two lines how low-quality stocks with B or worse ratings outperformed higher-quality stocks of B+ or better by +4.12% for the quarter and +10.50% for the year.

This dynamic appears to be confirmed by the top five absolute performers in the Russell 1000 Value during the quarter, seen in the chart to the right. Over the past three calendar years, this group of stocks earned a profit in only 20% of those years.

Only the cryptocurrency-focused stock, Microstrategy, generated a profit, while cumulatively they lost money over those years. With unprofitable companies constituting the top performers in the Russell 1000 Value, we believe it provides confirmation for the Bank of America Global research that low-quality stocks performed well in the most recent quarter.

Top 4Q24 Absolute Performers Net Income

2021-2023

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Characteristics Performance

Large Cap Value Peer Group

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On the charts above, we show what worked in the large cap value space relative to the peer group rather than the index. These charts for Q4 and 2024 appear to show a similar story. What worked in the upper right quadrant was momentum, whether it was price or earnings, managers willing to own stocks with risk related to interest rates, the macroeconomy, or higher balance sheet leverage.

While quarter-to-quarter and occasionally year-to-year certain characteristics may come in and out of favor, we have found that our focus on quality companies with strong balance sheets, earnings growth, and attractive valuations may position clients for success in the long term.

As always, thank you for your interest and trust managing your investments.


Disclosures

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any type of investing involves risk and there are no guarantees that these methods will be successful. Economic charts are provided for illustrative purposes only. The information provided herein is subject to market conditions and is therefore expected to fluctuate.

The opinions contained in the preceding presentation reflect those of Sterling Capital Management LLC, and not those of Truist Financial Corporation or its executives. The stated opinions are for general information only and are educational in nature. These opinions are not meant to be predictions or an offer of individual or personalized investment advice. They are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. This information and these opinions are subject to change without notice. All opinions and information herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable. Sterling Capital Management LLC does not assume liability for any loss which may result from the reliance by any person upon such information or opinions.

Investment advisory services are available through Sterling Capital Management LLC, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission and an independently-operated subsidiary of Truist Financial Corporation. Sterling Capital Management LLC manages customized investment portfolios, provides asset allocation analysis and offers other investment-related services to affluent individuals and businesses. Securities and other investments held in investment management or investment advisory accounts at Sterling Capital Management LLC are not deposits or other obligations of Truist Financial Corporation, Truist Bank or any affiliate, are not guaranteed by Truist Bank or any other bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency, and are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal invested.

Sterling Capital does not provide tax or legal advice. You should consult with your individual tax or legal professional before taking any action that may have tax or legal implications.

The securities described are neither a recommendation nor a solicitation. Security information is being obtained from resources the firm believes to be accurate, but no warrant is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information.

The volatility of an index varies greatly. All indices are unmanaged and investments cannot be made directly in an index.

The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000® companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The Russell 1000® Value Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap value segment. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included and that the represented companies continue to reflect value characteristics.

The S&P 500® Index is a readily available, carefully constructed, market-value-weighted benchmark of common stock performance. Currently, the S&P 500 Composite includes 500 of the largest stocks (in terms of stock market value) in the United States and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.

Dividend-focused strategies may underperform strategies that do not limit their investment to dividend-paying stocks. Stocks held strategy may reduce or stop paying dividends, affecting the strategy’s ability to generate income.

Technical Terms: Earnings per share (EPS) is a measure of a company's profitability that indicates how much profit each outstanding share of common stock has earned. It's calculated by dividing the company's net income by the total number of outstanding shares. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio measures a company's share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS). Often called the price or earnings multiple, the P/E ratio helps assess the relative value of a company's stock. Return on equity (ROE) is a measure of a company's financial performance. It is calculated by dividing net income by shareholders' equity. (Technical definitions are sourced from Corporate Finance Institute and Investopedia.)

The Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA) charter is a graduate-level investment credential awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To earn the CFA charter, candidates must: 1) pass three sequential, six-hour examinations; 2) have at least four years of qualified professional investment experience; 3) join CFA Institute as members; and 4) commit to abide by, and annually reaffirm, their adherence to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct.

Since we began publishing The Lead in 2015, our primary purpose has been to communicate our investment philosophy and process as an investment advisor in the context of changing markets. In creating portfolios that differ from our benchmarks by focusing on characteristics that have a long term history of attractive relative returns according to Ned Davis Research, the portfolios are different from the benchmarks and as a result there can be periods where results differ including below benchmark performance. Since strategies are oriented toward the long term characteristics, if those characteristics are out of favor over a period of time, the given strategy’s performance could be challenged in terms of relative performance. While Sterling believes active professional investment management that employs a consistent process with a long term orientation and aligned with client interests offers benefits, management fees to support the active approach can be higher than certain alternatives. When hiring an investment manager we believe it is important to monitor the investment risks taken including sector concentrations, portfolio turnover, and the impacts of dividend policy changes.

About the Author


Photo of Charles  Wittmann

Charles Wittmann, CFA®

Co-Portfolio Manager

Charles Wittmann, CFA®, Executive Director, joined SCM in 2014 and has investment experience since 1995. Chip is Co-Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income strategy. Prior to joining SCM, he worked for Thompson Siegel & Walmsley as a portfolio manager and (generalist) analyst. Prior to TS&W, he was a founding portfolio manager and analyst with Shockoe Capital, an equity long/short hedge fund. Chip received his B.A. in Economics from Davidson College and his M.B.A. from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation and served as President of CFA Society Virginia from 2012-2013.

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